Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
